Extreme Events

Welcome to the SAMA group's Extreme Events page.
This theme is coordinated by Philippe Naveau ( P. Naveau email

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Currently there is an increasing research activity in the area of geophysical extremes because they represent a key manifestation of non-linear systems and an enormous impact on economic and social human activities. Our understanding of the mean behavior in geosciences and its "normal" variability has been improving significantly during the last decades. In comparison, extreme events have been hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws than averages. In this context, the motivation of this SAMA group is to educate scientists about the basic principles of Extreme Value Theory and to take advantage of the most recent advances in this field of statistics and applied probability in order to better quantity the uncertainty linked to extremes.

Latest news

September 3rd - 12th 2007 - E2C2-GIACS Advanced School :
Extreme events: Nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis.
July 30th 2007 - M. Kallache (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Seminar (home page):
Trends in mean and extreme values of river discharge time series
July 23rd - 27th 2007 - 5th Conference on Extreme Value Analysis :
Probabilistic and statistical models and their applications
May 2nd 2007, 2.00-4.30 PM - Extreme Values Reading Group meeting :
Aurélie Muller presents Bayesian comparison of different rainfall depth-duration frequency relationships
December 11th 2006 (morning) - december 13th 2006 (12h) - Pascal Yiou & Philippe Naveau Course :
Time series analysis
November 29th 2006- JOB ANNOUNCEMENT - Two-year post-doctoral position :
Statistical merging of geophysical data and downscaling of extremes
November 17th 2006 - call for post-doctoral position focused on downscaling and extreme values in the framework of RTN NICE : "Statistical merging of geophysical data and downscaling of extremes" .
For more informations, please contact Paul-Antoine Michelangeli () or Philippe Naveau ().
October 2nd 2006, 10.30AM - Narta Nogaj (LSCE) Thesis Defence :
Statistical diagnostics of climatic variability around North Atlantic

Seminars, workshops, conferences

September 3rd - 12th 2007 - E2C2-GIACS Advanced School :
Extreme events: Nonlinear dynamics and time series analysis.
July 30th 2007 - M. Kallache (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Seminar (home page):
Trends in mean and extreme values of river discharge time series
July 23rd - 27th 2007 - 5th Conference on Extreme Value Analysis :
Probabilistic and statistical models and their applications
June 22nd 2007: M.-L. Segond (Météo France & CEMAGREF) Seminar :
Modélisation spatio-temporelle des précipitations de trois régions du Royaume-Uni
May 14th 2007, 3.30 PM - Mathieu Ribatet and Eric Sauquet (CEMAGREF) Seminar , presenting respectively:
*Improve flood quantile estimates using local information more efficiently. Modelling all exceedances above a threshold
*Des techniques géostatistiques adaptées pour l'interpolation de débits de référence : du module aux extrêmes
April 13th 2007, 2.00 PM - Cristina Primo (Université de Reading) Seminar :
Creating probability forecasts of binary events from ensemble predictions and prior information - A Comparison of Methods.
March 14th 2007, 2.30-3.30 PM - Jean-Jacques Boreux (Dépt des Sciences et Gestion de l'Environnement, Univ. de Liège) Seminar :
Un modèle statistique paramétrique bayésien, impliquant des variables latentes dans une structure hiérarchique, extrait un signal commun des anneaux annuels de croissance d'une population d'épinettes noires (Picea mariana).
January 19th 2007, 11.00 AM - Eric Parent (INRA/AgoParisTech) Seminar :
Risk evaluation under situation of climatic change: an impossible mission?
October 5th 2006, 2.30 PM - Richard W. Katz (NCAR, Boulder) Seminar :
Bayesian approach to decision making using ensemble weather forecasts

Links

Philippe Naveau's home page with his works on extremes.