Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques
Meeting room nr. 417, corridor 45-55, 4th floor
4 place de Jussieu
75252 PARIS CEDEX 05
Seminar: Adaptation de la théorie contrefactuelle de la causalité à la détection et attribution du changement climatique
by Alexis HANNART , I.F.A.E.C.I., Argentina-France
Causality is not a trivial notion in science: the emergence of clear semantics for causal claims and of a sound logic for
causal reasoning is relatively recent, with the consolidation over the past decades of a coherent theoretical corpus of definitions, concepts
and methods of general applicability (e.g. Pearl ) which is anchored into counterfactuals. The latter corpus is of high practical interest
and is now routinely used in numerous applied fields (e.g. epidemiology, economics, social science). In spite of their rather consensual nature
and proven efficacy, these definitions and methods are not yet fully used in climate science, in particular for studies on the causal attribution
of long term trends and/or climate-related events.
This seminar will give a brief overview on the main concepts underpinning the causality theory, will sketch a counterfactual approach for causal attribution in the realm of climate science and will then discuss a few implications for the formulation of causal claims regarding climate change.
For more information: A. HANNART ()