Tuesday 20th January 2009, 2.30 PM
Meeting Room Nr. 211, corridor 45-55, 2nd floor
4 place de Jussieu
75252 PARIS CEDEX 05-->

Seminar: Extreme climate events and Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking in present and future climate model simulations.
by Jana Sillmann, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Atmosphere in the Earth System/IMPRS-ESM, Hambourg


The study focuses on the analysis of the occurrence and changes of extreme events in global climate model simulations of the present and future climate. On the one hand, indices for extreme events are calculated and the model results are compared to observations. On the other hand, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is fitted to extreme events within time series of daily temperature data. To test the hypothesis that climate extremes are influenced by certain large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, we try to improve the fit by conditioning the extreme value distribution on a covariate. In this respect atmospheric blocking acts as a prominent feature with considerable impacts on the Euro-Atlantic climate. We find that including atmospheric blocking as covariate improves the GEV fit to the temperature data in certain regions of Europe and has an impact on the return period of temperature extremes.

For more information: J. SILLMANN (J. Sillmann email)

Link to presentation: ppt file

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