Meeting Room Nr. 211, corridor 45-55, 2nd floor
4 place de Jussieu
75252 PARIS CEDEX 05-->
Seminar: Extreme climate events and Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking in present and future climate model simulations.
by Jana Sillmann, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Atmosphere in the Earth System/IMPRS-ESM, Hambourg
The study focuses on the analysis of the occurrence and changes of
extreme events in global climate model simulations of the present and
future climate. On the one hand, indices for extreme events are
calculated and the model results are compared to observations.
On the other hand, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is
fitted to extreme events within time series of daily temperature data.
To test the hypothesis that climate extremes are influenced by certain
large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, we try to improve the fit
by conditioning the extreme value distribution on a covariate. In this
respect atmospheric blocking acts as a prominent feature with
considerable impacts on the Euro-Atlantic climate. We find that
including atmospheric blocking as covariate improves the GEV fit to the
temperature data in certain regions of Europe and has an impact on the
return period of temperature extremes.
For more information: J. SILLMANN ()
Link to presentation: